Georgia poll reflects debate had little sway on voters’ opinions

(The Center Square) – The first poll out of Georgia following the presidential debate last Tuesday seems to indicate the debate made little sway on the views of Georgia voters.

The Trafalgar Group’s poll has former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 1.7%, which is similar to polls also conducted before the debate.

The poll, which surveyed 1,100 participants Thursday through Sunday, had 46.2% of voters saying they planned to vote for Trump, while 44.5% support Harris.

The margin of error for the poll was 2.9%.

While Trafalgar Group is a partisan pollster for the Republican Party, predebate polls have Trump leading with a similar margin or the two candidates statistically tied.

An ActiVote poll of just 400 likely Georgia voters, which is a small sample compared to many other polls, had Trump ahead of Harris by 0.4%. That poll was completed the day of the debate, Sept. 10.

Another poll had Trump even further ahead.

A poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies conducted Sept. 6-9 had Trump leading Harris by 2%, which is comparable to his lead in many other recent polls.

Only one poll from the last two weeks has Harris leading, and that was by just 1%. Margin of error for polls is usually just below or at 3% to just under or at 4%.

Trump’s polling average in the state is only 0.4%, compared to the same point in the 2020 election when he was leading President Joe Biden by 1.5%.

With just 49 days until Election Day and early in-person voting starting in Georgia on Oct. 15, the polls still have time to shift.

Right before Election Day on his way to winning, Joe Biden pulled ahead to a little over 1% ahead of Trump, eventually winning the state by just 12,000 votes.

The Trafalgar poll had a uniquely high percentage of unaffiliated voters. It was 28%, compared to ActiVote’s 20%.

ActiVote found that unaffiliated voters were much more likely to vote for Trump, with 64% saying they planned to vote for him, compared to 36% for Harris.

Polls in Georgia have consistently shown the trend of those independent or unaffiliated voters regularly leaning toward Trump.

Undecided voters will likely also play a critical role.

The Trafalgar poll found that nearly 10% of voters are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate.

This is much higher than other polls like Redfield & Wilton poll, which said that only 3% of likely voters in Georgia remain undecided.