Helene in Atlanta could be what Hugo was to Charlotte

(The Center Square) – Atlanta is forecast to take the worst storm beating of a major inland city in the South since the first Bush administration.

Hurricane Helene’s expanse is forecast to only fall short of Opal (1995), Wilma (2005) and Irma (2017) from the Gulf since Hugo devastated Charlotte in 1989. The storm, likely making landfall Thursday evening in the Big Bend of Florida, is forecast to be a tropical storm when it centers over or near Georgia’s capital city.

At 2 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, Helene has maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, minimum pressure of 959 millibars, and was moving north-northeast at 16 mph. Its center is about 195 miles southwest of Tampa, about 230 miles south of Apalachicola, Fla.

Impact on the eye’s route through Georgia could span more than 100 counties in diameter.

Hugo came ashore Sept. 22, 1989, near Sullivan’s Island, S.C., just north of Charleston as a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 135-140 mph. It blew through the Upstate region, pushing sustained winds to 70 mph in Charlotte. About 85% of the city was left in the dark, and much was inaccessible.

On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale – a measurement of wind speed, and criticized for the shortcoming of dangerous storm surge not being reflected – the Category 1 range is sustained wind speed of 74-95 mph.

Many forecasters are putting Charlotte’s Hugo in the same conversations with Atlanta and Helene. All totaled, Hugo killed 67 and caused an estimated $11 billion in damages – about $27 billion in today’s dollars.

Southern Appalachian mountain communities are bracing for troubling conditions in Georgia and the Carolinas. The French Broad and Swannanoa rivers, each of which runs near Asheville, are expected to break century-old records this weekend. Mudslides are possible.

While the storm is expected to turn more westerly as it makes its way out of the South, North Carolinians remember well not only Hugo but Floyd 25 years ago that produced a once-in-500 years flood. Big part of that catastrophe was Hurricane Dennis inundating eastern North Carolina just weeks earlier.

Floyd was a Category 2 storm landing at Cape Fear near Wilmington on Sept. 16, 1999. In most communities east of Interstate 95, the projection was a five-year recovery period; many lasted longer.

Nine storms have been named in the Atlantic hurricane season that began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. Isaac was the most recent.